Certainly the Russians can heavily damage the Ukraine; but this is all pointless in the longer term. They are trading their wealth, soldiers and energies for essentially nothing of value in return. Their professional army can destroy but they cannot occupy the Ukraine, although their bandits probably can create some sort of brutal strong-arm “government” in the blasted areas they control with whatever population cannot escape (likely the old and alcoholics) similar to what has been deployed in Chechnya and other “frozen” conflict areas.
The Russian economy is heavily damaged; the fall in oil prices is (mostly) beyond their control but it is happening at a most un-opportune time. Sanctions will punish those few Russian companies that attempt to sell to the West, and state control of the Internet is also hurting one of their most competitive industries (high tech). The ruble is also falling and soon the Russians will be able to buy what is produced locally and this will not be the cornucopia of choice that they have today.
Read the whole thing, as they say: sound logic and many apt observations. Don’t miss the China-related prognosis at the end.