For those who missed Vinny’s comment, I will repost it here in full. It is a Public Service Announcement, a memento mori, a “whoever has ears…” – or , per Ukrainian proverb “хто довго ходить – той сам собі шкодить” : a warning.
It is still too early in NYC to worry about picking up Ebola from attending a gym or going to a concert. Obviously now, there is some worry after Spencer graced us all with his presence, but I haven’t reached a stage where I am afraid to go shopping at Costco or going to a theater. That will all likely change for the worse in the coming months. You probably have till early Spring to prepare. Vaccine, if it works, may be ready by Fall. By being prepared, I specifically mean planning to avoid crowds and shopping safely over the 6 months, in between Spring and Fall. Water in NYC should remain drinkable because I have not heard of Ebola being spread through contaminated water supplies.
So best case scenario: It all blows over and we in the U.S. only witness isolated cases of Ebola being imported from West Africa, and these isolated cases never spread beyond those who either live with the carriers or take direct care of these carriers. This is what has already happened so the best case is that it doesn’t get any worse than it has already become.
Next best case scenario: There is a limited outbreak here, but it happens late into the next year and by then we will have an effective vaccine against it, or we grow enough drugs in tobacco plants (they were given to 1st 2 victims but are no longer available for us proles) to control the limited outbreak here.
Next scenario in order of best to worst: Ebola outbreak creates havoc in our major cities, doctors and nurses flee for safety, and local population ends up tending for itself. This is what is now happening in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia. Economic impact will be more substantial than the number of people actually sick with Ebola, and it will be a nightmare living in a major metropolitan area. Food supplies will run short and you can forget about going to the emergency room in case you break something, develop an asthma attack, or even have chest pains. If what you have is less likely to kill you than visiting an emergency room teeming with Ebola victims, then you best stay home. I think about 1000 victims in NYC will create such a scene. If you consider that the virus doubles its victims every 3 weeks and that we are now bringing about one new carrier each week to the U.S. (about 1/2 will go to NY JFK and Newark airports), we are anywhere from 30 to 12 weeks from such a hellish possibility if the virus continues to invade the human population at its current rate. Still this scenario remains limited to causing most of its damage in 2014 and 2015, with life returning to normal afterwards.
Next worsening scenario is that this virus infects the local wild animal population, perhaps NYC rats, and it becomes endemic here. Then we will never get rid of it and we should expect occasional outbreaks every 1-2 years. Life will never get back to normal and this will be just one more danger of living in NYC.
Next on the list of possibilities includes the virus overwhelming our medical system, our ability to supply food to the population, until our government finally collapses and then it is every man, woman, and child for themselves. I think this is where Liberia is going to be soon. Expect such a scene if about 1 percent of the population becomes infected, or about 3 million people.
The worst scenario is when much of the country being infected, with about 50-90 percent dying from this virus. Societal collapse is guaranteed here. Cities will remain nightmarish. Some of your family will die and you will not be able to take care of yourself through post-industrial skill sets such as architecture. Everyone who survives will probably need to learn how to farm. Those who can take stuff from you through force will do so, unless you can pay off someone else who wields enough force to protect you. The scenario above is very similar to this one, but this bottom one incorporates more dead people and your family has a greater chance of dying from this virus.
Myself, I think for me it is too late. 3 month before Spring is too short a timeframe to a) acquire farming skills b) learn to operate a car c) earn enough money to be able to pay some guy-with-a-gun for protection against gangsters.
Where could I go if I don’t drive? Nowhere in America. Europe is more susceptible than us, for sure – judging by their immigration policies that our Administration eagerly emulates. Africa is out. Asia, Australia? Impractical. South America, though…hey, I do know a guy in Urugway!